Official figures show that more than 55 million people have lost their lives to the viral disease since the Covid-19 pandemic began in late 2019. But a new study published in the journal Nature claims the actual toll could be many times higher.
There has been debate over whether countries hide their actual Covid-19 death tolls to protect their image on global platforms.
The report, published in the journal Nature, considered machine learning methods used by The Economist in London. It found some problems with data collection and claimed that the actual death toll could be double and quadruple the official Covid-19 figure.
The Nature report cites examples of how countries around the world are reporting Covid-19 victims. In the Netherlands, the government, in the early stages of the pandemic, counted only those patients who died in hospital after being infected, it said.
Belgium, on the other hand, included deaths from severe colds and Covid-19 without testing patients, the report said. Death tolls remain high in rich countries while low in poor countries, the report said. But it further said that an analysis of the World Mortality Dataset (WMD) of 116 countries showed poorer countries had fewer deaths.
According to data modelling, the actual Covid-19 death toll in wealthy countries could be as high as a third of current figures. Meanwhile, in poor countries, the actual death toll could be 20 times higher than current figures.
The WHO may soon release its first assessment of the death toll, the report said. The opinion of several experts concluded that in order to estimate the actual number of Covid-19 deaths, it is necessary to compare the number of deaths that occurred in the five years before the pandemic with the current period.
The report also noted that the Covid-19 pandemic was the largest since the Spanish flu that spread between 1918-20.
According to the WMD model, more than 300,000 patients in Russia have died from Covid-19 by the end of 2021. However, the excess death toll could exceed 1 million during this period.
Over 100 countries, including China, India and several countries in Africa, lack estimates of excess deaths from weapons of mass destruction. Nature reports that this is due to their government not collecting death data or publishing death data quickly.
However, these countries have also killed millions of people due to Covid-19.
India was hit hard by last year’s second wave of Covid-19, with more than 487,000 deaths reported since the pandemic began. However, the above-mentioned model used by The Economist estimates about 5 million deaths in the country.
Likewise, in China, the epicenter of Covid-19, the Economist’s model estimates more than 750,000 deaths in total, 150 times the official figure of 4,600.
Complete News Source : Hindustan Times
