The benchmark indices shed around 2.5 percent over the week. The Sensex plunged 1,525 points, or 2.73 percent, to 54,334, and the Nifty50 declined 413 points,. (2.48 percent). Losses were led by auto, banking & financials and consumption stocks.
The coming week is expected to favour bears again, given the elevated volatility unless the Ukraine situation subsides. The election results on March 10 could also influence the market’s direction. Investors will be keeping a careful eye on China’s and the United States’ inflation numbers.
Here are 10 key factors that will keep traders busy next week:
Ukraine-Russia War:
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Ukrainian statehood was in jeopardy. A promised ceasefire in the besieged port city of Mariupol collapsed amid scenes of terror. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has asked for weapons from western countries and has sought more sanctions against Moscow.
The United States has asked its citizens to leave Russia immediately over fears of harassment by Russian security officials. Around 1.5 million people have fled Ukraine, triggering the worst refugee crisis of the century. Thousands of Indians, most of them students, have left the war-torn country and are being brought home.
Oil price :
Worries over rising oil prices raised risks of inflation and worries for corporate earnings. India’s trade deficit could widen as it imports 80-85 percent of its oil requirement.
Global data points :
US and China’s inflation numbers for February will be closely watched by global investors. In January, US inflation hit a 40-year high of 7.5 percent, favouring expectations of more rate hikes in coming quarters.
Relentless Selling Pressure by FIIs :
Domestic institutional investors offset FII outflow to a great extent. FIIs have sold more than Rs 2 lakh crore worth of shares since October 2021. Experts expect the selling to remain intense and feel the market may get support from DIIs, though the upside is feeling pressure from FIIs.
Economic Data :
Economic and financial data for February will be released on March 3, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said in its latest bulletin. The bank loan and deposit growth for fortnight ended February 25, as well as foreign exchange reserves data for the week ended March 4 will also be published.
Technical View :
The Nifty has moved closer to its crucial support of 16,130 on March 4. The index has formed a bearish candle, which resembles the Spinning Top pattern. Trend seems to be in favour of the bears with consolidation, says analyst Nagaraj Shetti.
F&O Cues :
The Nifty50 could see a wider trading range of 15,800 to 16,700 in the coming sessions. Maximum Call open interest was seen at 17,000 strike followed by 16,.700 and 16,800 strikes. The maximum Put open interest saw at 16,300 strike then 16,200 and 15,500 strikes.
The fear index :
India VIX, the fear index, climbed above the 30-mark again before settling at 27.95 on March 4. Volatility has to fall below the 20-mark for stability and to bring the bulls back on street.
Corporate action:
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Sharekhan’s research report on NMDC :
NMDC has taken cumulative price hikes of 14%/12% or Rs. 700/Rs. 500 per tonne for iron ore lump/fines over Jan-Feb 2022. Domestic iron ore price is at steep discount of 43% to international iron prices.
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