With monsoon still eluding the city and its surrounding areas, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts have come under criticism.
No forecasting model in the world has 100% accuracy even with the best of technology, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of Meteorology at the IMD. Mohapatra argued that the “unpredictable” nature of the monsoon can only provide 55-60% accuracy even with the best of technology and forecasting models in place.
According to the IMD, it relies on human intervention to assess models, since dependence on technology alone can leave data open to interpretation in some cases. Every morning, the IMD holds a video conference where scientists from across the country use their experiences to assess the weather pattern for the next few days, relying on forecast models generated by machines, satellite imagery and radar technology. Met officials say while the reliance on technology is 70%, the 30% human interpretation plays a critical role in the forecast for the day.
While one can rely on satellite imagery and radar technology for a short-term forecast of 3-4 hours, the same may not hold true for 24 hours.
News Source : Headlines Today
