Faced with pandemic difficulties and U.S.-led sanctions on his nuclear ambitions, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may revive his 2017 nuclear and missile brinkmanship to win concessions from Washington and its neighbors.
North Korea’s short-range missile launch on Monday was its fourth round of missile tests this month, a sign that a Biden administration, which is more focused on confronting bigger adversaries such as China and Russia, refuses to ignore.
Experts say the tests may also reflect a growing need for external relief after its economy slumps further under harsh sanctions and two years of pandemic border closures.
The two missiles fired near the capital Pyongyang on Monday followed the resumption of rail freight shipments with China, which had been suspended over fears of the pandemic, in a possible attempt to revive a desperate economy.
Trade between China’s Dandong and North Korea’s Sinuiju will remain unchanged while maintaining pandemic control, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Monday. While North Korea may continue to display its weapons in the coming weeks, it could remain relatively quiet ahead of the Winter Olympics in February, with China, its main ally and economic lifeblood, firing known short-range missiles rather than more provocative systems. .
But once the Beijing Olympics are over, it could raise the stakes considerably. Du Hyeogn Cha, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said Kim Jong-un could resume tests of nuclear explosives and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Kim Jong-un suspended nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests in 2018 during talks with former U.S. President Donald Trump. But diplomacy has remained derailed since the second summit in 2019, when the Americans rejected North Korea’s demand for a partial relinquishment of its nuclear capabilities in exchange for major sanctions.
In recent months, North Korea has ramped up testing of short-range missiles designed to defeat missile defenses in the region.
Its leaders may think it needs a more provocative test to advance relations with a Biden administration, which has offered open-ended talks but has shown no willingness to ease sanctions unless Kim Jong-un takes a real steps to abandon his nuclear weapons program.
Cha said it was unclear whether a nuclear test or an ICBM test would prompt a compromise from Washington, which is more likely to respond with further sanctions and military pressure, possibly including the resumption of major military exercises with South Korea.
Complete News Source : Hindustan Times
