After a series of eruptions from the sun, Earth may experience auroras in the coming days.
A sunspot called AR2929 sent out two solar flares accompanied by a coronal mass ejection. Although neither is aimed at Earth, the jets currently exploding in space could be glancing at our planet’s atmosphere, which could lead to mild geomagnetic storms.
The first flare occurred on January 18 at 5:44 p.m. ET and was classified as an M1.5-class flare. The second outbreak occurred on January 20 at 6:01 a.m. ET. It’s more powerful, clocked at M5.5. Both are considered moderate-level flares — not the most powerful activity our sun is capable of, but powerful enough to feel its effects on Earth.
For both flares, a beam of X-rays ionized the top of Earth’s atmosphere, causing brief, slight shortwave radio outages; the first over South America and the second over the Indian Ocean.
A coronal mass ejection (CME), caused by the breaking and reconnection of magnetic field lines, is a massive ejection of up to billions of tons of plasma from the sun’s corona, carrying an embedded magnetic field. These typically occur with solar flares and travel outward from the sun, taking days to reach Earth if they were heading in our direction. If not, they can still give a glimpse. This is what we might see in the two CMEs in AR2929. The resulting geomagnetic storm will be mild: there may be some grid fluctuations, a slight degradation of radio communications, and a slight disruption to space operations.
We may also see auroras when charged particles from the CME collide and interact with Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field, creating a gorgeous light show at high latitudes.
Such flares have become more common as the sun gradually rises to its solar maximum, with peaks in solar activity occurring in 11-year cycles.
This cycle is based on the sun’s magnetic field, which flips every 11 years, with the north and south magnetic poles swapping places. It’s not clear what drives these cycles (recent research has linked it to the 11.07-year planetary alignment), but when the magnetic field is at its weakest, the poles switch, also known as the solar minimum.
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