According to the modeling and data analysis performed by scientists from the Tata Institute of Basic Research, the third wave of Covid-19 pandemic cases driven by the Omicron variant will peak in Mumbai from January 6 to 13, and the death toll will be 2 The month reached its peak. Research (TIFR).
Analysis shows that compared with the second wave, the third wave of surge is manageable for the city because it will not overwhelm medical facilities in terms of hospitalization and oxygen demand.
The simulator model was developed by Sandeep Juneja and Daksh Mittal of TIFR School of Technology and Computer Science. Although they have used the model to make predictions during the first and second waves, the current analysis is performed after introducing the Omicron variant into the simulator.
The model predicted the peak schedule, but the scientists did not predict the number of cases. “It is difficult to predict these numbers because they depend largely on the testing strategy and the people being tested, but our model shows that the peak hospitalization period will be 50% to 70% of the number of hospitalizations we saw during the Delta Wave. %,” Juneja said. He added that they have taken into account that during the peak period of the second wave, the occupancy rate of the Covid dedicated hospital and dedicated Covid medical center was approximately 18,000. In the second wave,” he said. He added that they have regarded the death toll of 90 people as the highest single-day death toll in the second wave. He said: “So, on the peak day of this wave, we may Seeing 30 to 45 deaths. “
Based on existing international data, their analysis assumes that compared with susceptible people, among people who are fully vaccinated and infected with Covid-19, the chance of using Omicron to be hospitalized will be reduced by 70%. Those who are fully vaccinated but not infected have a 55% reduction in their chances. Compared with Delta, susceptible people are much less likely to be hospitalized. According to analysis, compared with delta, the chance of symptoms after Omicron infection is also reduced by 20%.
Juneja emphasized certain warnings. In addition to considering data released by citizen groups, their assumptions are also based on data from South Africa and the United Kingdom. “We really don’t have data from India. We assume that 35% of people who recover from the disease are prone to re-infection. But this is just one of the many scenarios we are considering in South Africa. We also assume that Omicron is twice as infectious as the Delta variant. But this assumption is not yet fully established,” Juneja said. He added that these points should be treated as warnings.
Complete News Source : Hindustan Times
