The rupee weakened further on Friday and settled below $75 per dollar for the first time in 2022, after U.S. inflation accelerated to a 40-year high of 7.5 percent year-on-year in January, spooking global markets.

The rupee weakened after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a “super dovish” policy on Thursday, and weakened further on Friday on a stronger global dollar.

“The rupee fell against the dollar after U.S. inflation rose sharply in January. U.S. consumer prices rose steadily in January, leading to the largest annual increase in inflation in 40 years, fueling financial market speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sharply next month. Motilal Gaurang Somaiya, currency and gold analyst at Oswal Financial Services, said the dollar rose against major crosses after inflation picked up.

The rupee settled below the 75/$ mark for the first time in 2022 at 75.38, compared to Thursday’s close of 74.94. This is the lowest closing price for the domestic unit since December 22, 2021.

The level was breached by 75 following the release of U.S. inflation data, a currency trader said. “Rupee weakened in early trade due to broad dollar strength,” a trader said.

There was no central bank intervention in foreign exchange markets on Friday, traders said.
The local currency is likely to come under pressure in the coming days as international crude oil prices hover above $90 a barrel. External conditions have been exacerbated by high crude oil prices as India imports more than 80% of its crude oil needs.

“We expect the dollar to trade in the 75.05 and 75.80 range,” Somaiya said.

Among the global factors, one of the main concerns is inflation, which could affect Indian units. Goldman Sachs has now included a forecast of seven Fed rate hikes of 25 basis points this year, up from five such hikes. The update comes after January’s inflation data. Domestically, crude oil prices will be one of the factors affecting the rupee.

Unlike past 2013 Fed tapering “tantrums” that led to a currency crisis in India, this time is different. The country’s foreign exchange reserves are much higher — $632 billion versus $275 billion — and the current account deficit is much smaller. Inflation also remained within the RBI’s 2-6% target range, albeit closer to the ceiling. The central bank expects inflation to cool from the second half of next financial year, as it expects CPI inflation to come in at 4.5% in FY23.

According to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s foreign exchange reserves stood at nearly $632 billion in the week to February 4. Since peaking in September 2021, the country’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen by about $10 billion.

Complete News Source : Business Standard