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3rd wave won’t overwhelm Mumbai hospitals: TIFR model
According to the modeling and data analysis performed by scientists from the Tata Institute of Basic Research, the third wave of Covid-19 pandemic cases driven by the Omicron variant will peak in Mumbai from January 6 to 13, and the death toll will be 2 The month reached its peak. Research (TIFR).
Analysis shows that compared with the second wave, the third wave of surge is manageable for the city because it will not overwhelm medical facilities in terms of hospitalization and oxygen demand.
The simulator model was developed by Sandeep Juneja and Daksh Mittal of TIFR School of Technology and Computer Science. Although they have used the model to make predictions during the first and second waves, the current analysis is performed after introducing the Omicron variant into the simulator.
The model predicted the peak schedule, but the scientists did not predict the number of cases. “It is difficult to predict these numbers because they depend largely on the testing strategy and the people being tested, but our model shows that the peak hospitalization period will be 50% to 70% of the number of hospitalizations we saw during the Delta Wave. %,” Juneja said. He added that they have taken into account that during the peak period of the second wave, the occupancy rate of the Covid dedicated hospital and dedicated Covid medical center was approximately 18,000. In the second wave,” he said. He added that they have regarded the death toll of 90 people as the highest single-day death toll in the second wave. He said: “So, on the peak day of this wave, we may Seeing 30 to 45 deaths. “
Based on existing international data, their analysis assumes that compared with susceptible people, among people who are fully vaccinated and infected with Covid-19, the chance of using Omicron to be hospitalized will be reduced by 70%. Those who are fully vaccinated but not infected have a 55% reduction in their chances. Compared with Delta, susceptible people are much less likely to be hospitalized. According to analysis, compared with delta, the chance of symptoms after Omicron infection is also reduced by 20%.
Juneja emphasized certain warnings. In addition to considering data released by citizen groups, their assumptions are also based on data from South Africa and the United Kingdom. “We really don’t have data from India. We assume that 35% of people who recover from the disease are prone to re-infection. But this is just one of the many scenarios we are considering in South Africa. We also assume that Omicron is twice as infectious as the Delta variant. But this assumption is not yet fully established,” Juneja said. He added that these points should be treated as warnings.
Complete News Source : Hindustan Times
health and remedies
Train smarter, not harder: How taking occasional breaks from gym can revolutionise your fitness routine
Taking regular breaks from intense training, like deload weeks, helps your body recover, preventing fatigue and injury, and ultimately boosts fitness gains.
When it comes to getting fit, the idea of spending hours at the gym might come to mind, but many fitness experts argue that taking a “deload week” every six to eight weeks is actually key to improving your fitness gains. A deload week involves reducing the intensity of workouts to allow the body to recover from the fatigue and muscle damage caused by intense training.
While high-intensity training helps build strength and fitness, it can also lead to muscle strain, and without adequate recovery, these gains can’t fully materialise. Deload weeks give the body much-needed rest to repair and rebuild, ensuring continued progress. (Also read: Bhagyashree swears by this super easy exercise for instant leg pain relief and better mobility. Watch how to do it )
Why recovery is key for muscle growth
According to an article by The Conversation, intense exercise can cause tiny tears in muscle fibres, leading to inflammation that requires rest or low-intensity exercise to heal. This inflammation is essential for muscle growth and fitness improvements. However, without proper recovery, muscles remain in a state of slight damage, preventing inflammation from resolving. This chronic state of inflammation can hinder muscle function, reducing oxygen efficiency and impairing performance. Giving muscles time to recover through rest ensures they repair properly and are primed for continued progress, setting us up for greater success in our fitness journey.
Many gymgoers fear taking time off and are worried it will lead to a loss of gains. However, research shows that muscle genes have a “memory imprint,” which keeps them in a semi-prepared state. This allows muscles to respond more quickly and effectively to future training, promoting growth after a rest period. Even after extended periods of reduced intensity, up to seven weeks, muscular fitness can be restored to prime condition—and in some cases, surpass previous levels. Interestingly, recovery can occur twice as fast as it took to reach peak fitness initially, even if some strength is lost.
Taking time off from intense training is crucial to prevent muscle soreness and avoid overtraining syndrome. Overtraining occurs when the body doesn’t get enough rest, leading to prolonged fatigue, decreased performance, and mood disturbances. Symptoms develop gradually, making overtraining difficult to recognize until it’s severe. Rest is essential to avoid these issues and ensure long-term progress in training.
Role of overtraining syndrome and deload weeks
Overtraining syndrome is challenging to quantify due to its vague symptoms. Studies suggest it may affect as few as 10% of elite athletes, though rates could climb to 60% among highly competitive individuals. Recovery is essential for both fitness and overall health. When engaging in heavy gym routines, it’s vital to incorporate sufficient recovery time into your workout plan. Unlike rest days, which involve little to no exercise once or twice a week, deload weeks feature lighter training at reduced intensity—typically about 50% fewer workouts or a 20% drop in workout intensity.
Both rest days and deload weeks are essential for recovery and crucial to improving fitness. It’s not about choosing one over the other—they complement each other. For instance, intense training for marathons, Ironman, or CrossFit competitions requires weekly rest days alongside scheduled deload weeks. However, for recreational gym-goers exercising 1–3 times weekly at a moderate intensity, the recovery from this routine is often sufficient without the need for additional deload weeks.
Fitness influencers recommend incorporating deload weeks into training schedules every 4–8 weeks, aligning closely with the expert advice of 4–6 weeks. However, it’s crucial to listen to your body and schedule deload weeks as needed. If your performance plateaus or worsens, it may signal time for a deload. Training plans should be flexible enough to allow rest when required. Deload weeks not only enhance performance but also support overall health.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not a substitute for professional medical advice. Always seek the advice of your doctor with any questions about a medical condition.
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