The national R value dipped to below 1 in the last week in 5 high burden states. The dip helped moderate India’s curve of active infections. The R value indicates the likely number of people a Covid positive person can infect.

The durability of the gains depends on continued progress in these states and profile of the disease in 5 metros. Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Kolkata and Bengaluru may hold the key to how the pandemic progresses.

“At present, India is dependent on how Maharashtra is doing because the state accounts for a large number of active cases and therefore, it is going to contribute to the national average. Of course, it will also depend on the magnitude of R. But so far, Maharashtra continues to dominate the R value of India,” says Sinha.
The R value is subject to interpretations but is a useful measure of how fast the disease is spreading.

Among the top five high burden states, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have R value below 1. Between September 18-21, Mumbai’s R value dropped below 1 but it has again risen.
Similarly, the value has again gone above 1 in Chennai, Bengaluru and Kolkata. However, the latest trend of recoveries outstripping new cases has also raised hope that if India is able to bring down the growth rate in active cases, the R value will fall too.

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