QUAD is expected to record a forward momentum to strengthen the grouping at the Tokyo summit on Tuesday, despite Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

While QUAD diplomats work to issue a strong statement on both the brutal war in Ukraine and China’s belligerence in the Indo-Pacific, the two theatres and their global consequences will be the main topics of discussion at the Summit.

With the Australian general election today, there’s a good chance the QUAD will welcome a new Prime Minister from Down Under, unless incumbent Scott Morrison pulls off an electoral miracle. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the QUAD’s most senior member, with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida being the most recent newcomer.

Even as the QUAD groupings call for an immediate cessation of hostilities in the Ukraine theatre, with Russia largely controlling the Luhansk-Donbass-Mariupol region, the US, UK, and EU powers have made up their minds to economically and militarily challenge Russia under Vladimir Putin, with new LNG terminals being built in Greece and Italy. By persuading Finland and Sweden to join NATO, the US and EU have opened a new front with Russia that will have long-term consequences.

Apart from the Ukraine conflict, QUAD’s main focus will be the Indo-Pacific and the threat of a military emergency in Taiwan in the event that the Chinese Communist Party decides to invade Taipei soon, with immediate consequences for Japan. The PLA is flexing military muscle across the Line of Actual Control in Xinjiang and Tibet, just as it has in the South China Sea. In the worst-case scenario, the construction of military infrastructure in Xinjiang and Tibet will allow for the rapid deployment of PLA land forces with support elements. The Indian military has responded to China’s challenge, but India’s democratic polity does not allow for the single-minded focus of an authoritarian state like China, where there is no room for any kind of dissent.

The QUAD democratic grouping, on the other hand, is expected to work together to strengthen maritime and energy security architectures, with a focus on trusted global supply chains and collaboration in critical and emerging technologies.

Apart from the QUAD summit, PM Modi will hold bilateral meetings with US Vice President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Kishida to strengthen economic and energy ties. While Russia and China will be the elephants in the room, the QUAD’s focus will be on emerging as a force for global good and stability in the face of the Ukraine conflict, Indo-Pacific military tensions, and the coronavirus wreaking havoc on small and large economies.