In a span of a week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has not only allowed a foreign bank to buy a private sector bank, and thereby gain more footprint in India but is now also thinking of opening the gates of banking to big conglomerates.India’s banking regulator seems to have tuned into American singer Bob Dylan’s “the times they are a-changing” yet again.

In a span of a week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has not only allowed a foreign bank to buy a private sector bank, and thereby gain more footprint in India but is now also thinking of opening the gates of banking to big conglomerates. What’s more is that big non-banking finance companies (NBFC) should turn themselves into mainstream banks.These are two of the many recommendations made by an internal working group. To be sure, these recommendations have been made in the past too. But the RBI has so far avoided being too lenient on giving out banking licences. In the last round of universal bank licensing six years ago, only two candidates made the cut and none of them were big conglomerates.

However, analysts feel this time the RBI may indeed warm up to the idea. The rationale is simple. The Indian economy needs big banks promoted by deep pocketed entities that can easily finance the needs of the economy. “For a capital starved banking sector, the only way is to tap domestic promoters to grow. I think some of the recommendations are path breaking if adopted,” said Abizer Diwanji, partner and national leader- financial services at E&Y. Diwanji believes that the RBI may first allow big NBFCs to turn them into banks. Such lenders already have the track record needed. Some of them also have robust processes that rival that of banks. “We need large scale lending in India and NBFCs turning into banks will help this,” said Diwanji. Analysts believe that NBFC shares may gain although these are just recommendations and not rules yet.While RBI may be softer on NBFCs, it may be tough to convince for giving licences to big conglomerates. To be sure, the working group has recommended that licences be given only once the Banking Regulation Act 1949 is suitably amended. This may take time. Also, the complex structure of large conglomerates make it difficult for the RBI to oversee them. “Big corporates getting licences may not be soon because the RBI will want to first ensure governance structures and supervisory rigour,” said Diwanji.

This rigour has come under question. While the RBI has tightened regulations enough to avoid nasty surprises, its supervisors have not been able to fish out dodgy transactions. Within two years, two large NBFCs and three banks have gone under. In the end, the regulator has been blamed for either waiting too long to rescue a bank or completely missing the problem. But the RBI has begun to plug the holes. In the past months, it has built a separate cadre of supervisors and also beefed up training.

Big conglomerates and NBFCs may find themselves closer to a bank licence than before. But the RBI won’t give in until it has all the shields in place.

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