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India’s R-naught value recorded at 4 this week: What it means for 3rd wave

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3 years ago

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India’s R-naught value recorded at 4 this week: What it means for 3rd wave

India records R-naught value of 4 in first week of 2022: What this means for third wave

The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 has been the highest in the first week of January, India’s R-naught value which indicates the spread of the infection revealed. According to a study by IIT Madras, the R-value was recorded at 4 this week, which is way above the R-value recorded ever in India.

What is R-naught value? Why is this important?

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The value indicated the number of people an infected person can spread the disease to. A value above 1 indicates that the pandemic is expanding as 1 suggests 1 infected person can infect another person. A value of 4 means one infected person can spread the infection to four people, which signifies that the transmission of the infection is huge.

Why is R-value 4 alarming?

According to the health ministry, the R-value was 1.69 during the peak of the second wave. Earlier this week, the ministry noted that India’s R-value already breached the peak of the second wave and reached 2.69. IIT Madras analysis said the R-value was close to 2.9 nationally between December 25 and December 31. From January 1 to 6, the value was recorded at 4.

Dr Jayant Jha, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics, IIT Madras, told PTI that R-value depends on transmissibility probability, contact rate and the expected time interval in which infection can happen. The preliminary analysis has been done jointly by IIT Madras’ Department of Mathematics and Centre of Excellence for Computational Mathematics and Data Science headed by Prof Neelesh S Upadhye and Prof S Sundar.

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“Now, with the increase in quarantine measures or restrictions, maybe the contact rate will go down and then, in that case, R0 can decrease. So, based on our preliminary analysis, which is just based on the last two weeks, we can tell these numbers, but again, these numbers can change based on how much affirmative action is taken with respect to social gathering and all,” he told PTI.

What it means for 3rd wave

Though the Centre has not termed the ongoing surge as the 3rd wave of the pandemic, it has acknowledged the exponential surge in the number of cases. State health ministers have said that the third wave has already set in. The IIT study predicts that the peak of the third wave will come between February 1 to 15.

The study has also shown that compared to previous waves, there will be a faster and sharper increase to the peak in this wave. However, the impact of the huge vaccine coverage will make this wave different, though now there are fewer restrictions compared to teh first wave when a national lockdown was imposed.

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Complete News Source : Hindustan Times

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2 ‘Kala Jatheri gang members’ killed in encounter with F’bad cops in Fatehabad

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1 day ago

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December 21, 2024

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2 ‘Kala Jatheri gang members’ killed in encounter with F’bad cops in Fatehabad

According to the police, the encounter took place after at least four suspects tried to help their close aide escape from police custody
The Faridabad police gunned down two members of the Kala Jatheri gang in an encounter near Fatehabad on Friday, officers said. A constable was injured in the gunfight, they added.

According to the police, the encounter took place after at least four suspects tried to help their close aide escape from police custody.

The identity of one of the deceased was not known, while the other was identified as Ravi (single name), who had 28 cases lodged against him in multiple districts.

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Aman Yadav, assistant commissioner of Police (ACP), Faridabad said the incident occurred when the police van stopped near a roadside eatery on the outskirts of Fatehabad while transporting Ravi back to Faridabad jail after a court appearance in an Arms Act case.

“Four armed individuals attacked the police team, firing multiple rounds to facilitate Ravi’s escape. In retaliation, police returned fire, killing Ravi and another suspect on the spot,” Yadav said.

Constable Sarjeet Yadav suffered a gunshot wound to his left forearm. He was rushed to a civic hospital, where his condition is reported to be stable, said police.

Yadav said that Ravi, who had been lodged in Faridabad jail since April 24, 2023, was being transported after attending an appeal hearing at the Fatehabad court. The ambush, allegedly orchestrated by Ravi’s associates, was intended to secure his release from custody. The police’s swift response thwarted the plan.

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Ravi had a long history of violent crimes, including murder, attempted murder, dacoity, robbery, and Arms Act violations. His activities spanned multiple districts, such as Sonipat, Jind, Rohtak, Faridabad, and Delhi. He was a key member of the Kala Jathedi gang, led by the notorious gangster Sandeep alias Kala Jathedi, who is currently in Tihar Jail.

Kala Jathedi himself is implicated in over a dozen cases across Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. In 2020, he famously escaped from Haryana Police custody during a similar ambush orchestrated by his gang.

ACP Yadav confirmed that police teams are actively investigating to identify the remaining attackers involved in the ambush. “We are working to uncover the identities of the other suspects who participated in the operation. Stringent action will be taken against all involved,” Yadav said.

This encounter is part of an ongoing crackdown on organized crime, with authorities aiming to dismantle gangs operating in the region.

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