Business
State of Indian economy, according to the Economic Survey 2022
This year’s annual pre-budget economic survey, prepared by chief economic adviser Sanjeev Sanyal, first highlighted India’s flexible policy response to the Covid-19 shock.
The “agile” framework is based on feedback loops and real-time monitoring of actual results, as opposed to the traditional “waterfall” strategy that introduces a pre-stimulus package. Agile methods are aided by 80 high frequency indicators (HFIs) for today’s extremely uncertain environment.
According to Sanyal, the survey reverted to a single-volume format after eight years as the two-volume format “became unwieldy.”
Economic survey forecasts India’s GDP to grow by 8-8.5% next fiscal year on the back of broad vaccine coverage, gains from supply-side reforms, strong export growth and fiscal capacity to increase capital spending if needed . The forecast is lower than the 9% forecast by the International Monetary Fund.
The survey noted that vaccination should not be seen as merely a health response, but as a current macroeconomic indicator.
The GDP forecast is based on assumptions that there will be no further weakening of the pandemic-related economic disruptions, that the monsoons will be normal, that the withdrawal of global liquidity by major central banks will be largely orderly, that global supply chain disruptions will steadily ease throughout the year and that oil prices will In the range of $70-75 per barrel.
While the first four assumptions seem plausible, the fifth assumption on oil prices seems promising as analysts expect Brent to average around $80 a barrel this year or even higher due to geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe .
Brent crude topped $90 last week for the first time since 2014 and could rise to $120 in the coming months.
However, the economic survey does suggest that India needs to be wary of imported inflation, especially rising global energy prices.
Interestingly, the Economic Survey uses satellite imagery to highlight India’s infrastructure development. For example, satellite photos of nighttime brightness between 2012 and 2021 show the expansion of electricity supply, economic activity and urban sprawl. Other images show the extent of urban sprawl in some parts of cities such as Gurugram, Bengaluru and Mumbai. (4 pictures below)
The survey acknowledged that India’s economic response to the pandemic has placed more emphasis on supply-side reforms than demand-side reforms. Some of these include production-linked incentive schemes, removal of retroactive taxes, relaxation of guidelines for the BPO sector, telecom sector reform and revision of the definition of MSME.
Whether the budget will offer measures to stimulate demand, such as cuts to income or fuel taxes and increased income tax relief, will be announced in a few hours.
Complete News Source : Business Standard
india
Oppn seeks probe into Adani charges in US: ‘Obvious protection of PM Modi’
Following US SEC charges of bribery against Gautam Adani, opposition parties criticise PM Narendra Modi and call for a JPC investigation.
As billionaire Gautam Adani faces charges in the US for alleged bribery and fraud, the Opposition on Thursday intensified its attack on the Centre over its alleged links with the Adani Group.
Gautam Adani has been charged in the US with allegedly paying $250 million in bribes to Indian officials between 2020 and 2024 to secure favourable terms for solar energy contracts. The scheme, prosecutors said, could have earned Adani’s group over $25 billion in profits.
Congress demands JPC probe
Reacting to the charges, the Congress called for a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) probe into alleged scams involving Adani’s conglomerate. The party also demanded the appointment of a “new and credible” Sebi chief to investigate Adani’s financial dealings and compliance with securities laws.
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Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) actions highlight the failure of Indian institutions to investigate the group. “The indictment vindicates Congress’s demand since January 2023 for a JPC into the Modani scams,” Ramesh wrote on X.
He accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of shielding Adani and claimed Congress’s “Hum Adani Ke Hain Kaun” (HAHK) series had exposed the businessman’s alleged fraud and his ties with the PM.
The fact that it has taken a foreign jurisdiction to properly investigate Adani only shows how Indian institutions have been captured by the BJP, and how decades of institutional development have been undone by greedy and power hungry leaders, the Congress leader said in another post.
“All of this is consistent with a long record of fraud and criminality carried out with impunity with the obvious protection of the Prime Minister,” Ramesh charged.
Other Oppn leaders join attack
Other opposition leaders joined the attack. Trinamool Congress MP Saket Gokhale questioned the BJP’s involvement in Adani’s dealings and demanded an independent judicial probe.
Aam Aadmi Party leader Sanjay Singh accused PM Modi of allowing Adani to tarnish India’s global reputation.
ALSO READ- Adani Group shares plunge after US SEC charges, Adani Green down 16%
Adani stocks latest updates
The allegations rattled markets, with Adani Group stocks plunging. Adani Enterprises fell 20 per cent in pre-open trade, while shares of Adani Ports, Adani Green, Adani Power, and others dropped between 7 per cent and 18 per cent.
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