Covid -19
Another Covid-19 outbreak could be caused by Delta or a different variant
According to a modelling study conducted in Israel, the Omicron subvariants may burn out in the coming months, and another outbreak of Delta or a different coronavirus strain could occur this summer.
The discovery, which was published in the journal Science of The Total Environment last week, suggests that while Delta wiped out the variants that came before it, Omicron hasn’t wiped out the deadly variant that could resurface.
Researchers from Israel’s Ben-Gurion University of the Negev (BGU) developed sensitive arrays that can distinguish variants from each other in wastewater, providing clues as to where the coronavirus is active even as PCR and rapid testing of people decline.
They observed a “disturbing interaction” between the Omicron and Delta variants in sewage in Beer-Sheva, Israel, from December 2021 to January 2022.
The researchers also created a model that predicts Omicron will burn out while Delta will simply bide its time.
“Of course, there are many factors at play, but our model suggests there could be another Delta or coronavirus variant outbreak this summer,” said BGU Professor Ariel Kushmaro in a statement.
Until now, according to the researchers, whenever a new dominant variant appeared, it quickly overtook its predecessor after a brief period of parallel evolution.
In contrast to the expected dynamics, in which the Delta variant decreases as the Omicron variant increases, the results of wastewater detection revealed a cryptic Delta circulation even with higher levels of Omicron, they said.
“According to the developed model, Omicron levels are expected to decrease until they are eliminated, while the Delta variant will maintain its cryptic circulation,” the study’s authors wrote.
“If this occurs, the cryptic circulation mentioned above may result in the reemergence of a Delta morbidity wave or the possible generation of a new threatening variant,” they added.
According to the researchers, including BGU’s Karin Yaniv, Omicron is rapidly spreading around the world, with high rates of morbidity.
The dynamics of the Omicron variant have shown different characteristics than the Delta variant, which was previously thought to be the main variant of concern in most countries, they said.
The use of wastewater-based epidemiology is recommended as a convenient and cost-effective method, according to the researchers.
Two studies that did not definitively resolve the question of whether the coronavirus can cause the chronic disease of diabetes found that Covid-19 in children and adolescents appeared to increase the chance of acquiring diabetes. Over two years after the pandemic’s commencement, researchers from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health looked at new type 1 diabetes diagnoses using national health registries. They discovered that type 1 diabetes was roughly 60% more likely to develop in children who had tested positive for the coronavirus.
The risk within 30 days of a Covid infection confirmed by a PCR test was examined by the researchers. Young adults were also included in a Scottish study that was presented at the European Link for the Study of Diabetes meeting. This study indicated an increased risk one month following the viral sickness, but the researchers said they discovered no association after that point.
The authors of both studies emphasised that their findings do not necessarily imply a causal link between diabetes and the coronavirus. Other potential causes were emphasised, such as delays in seeking medical attention during the epidemic, the introduction of other diseases, and alterations in way of life brought on by lockdowns.
Jamie Hartmann-Boyce, an associate professor at the Nuffield department of primary care health sciences at the University of Oxford, stated: “There are a lot of plausible reasons that Covid-19 might lead to development of type 1 diabetes, but this remains in no way proved.”
According to a paper earlier this week in the medical journal The Lancet, the number of people with type 1 diabetes, in which the pancreas fails to generate the hormone insulin, may increase from 8.4 million to 17.4 million by the year 2040.
The illness, which has no known treatment and is most frequently diagnosed in children, is thought to be caused by a combination of genetics and exposure to particular pathogens, including SARS-Cov-2 as well as a larger family of viruses known as enteroviruses. Type 2 diabetes, which is more prevalent, typically appears later in life as sedentary habits and weight increase mess with the body’s ability to manage sugar.
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